I think national issues play into gubernatorial races less than obviously in Senate and Congressional races. Much less. They tend to be more decided by personality leadership qualities and by state or local issues. They still have some effect no question about it but not as much as Senate and Congressional races.
Fitness is a curve. You can be Lance Armstrong or you can be really out of shape at the opposite end. People enter the curve wherever they are and then they can move up the curve by better nutrition and better exercise.