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Probability is expectation founded upon partial knowledge. A perfect acquaintance with all the circumstances affecting the occurrence of an event would change expectation into certainty and leave nether room nor demand for a theory of probabilities.

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Sometime they don't let you know that they know that they don't know everything but the core of the medical approach is that you try to identify pathologies which are subsystems within the human body or the larger system that are having undesirable consequences.